Ten Days Into the Crisis. Here Is Exactly Where Australian Fuel Prices Stand Right Now
Ten days ago, coordinated US and Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury killed Iran's Supreme Leader and triggered the most significant disruption to global oil flows in half a century. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps shut the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged. Freight rates hit records. And Australians started queuing at servos.
That was the shock. This is the aftermath.
As of this morning, the national average for unleaded petrol has hit 204.3 cents per litre. Diesel is at 211.7 cents. Premium 95 sits at 216.2 cents and premium 98 at 224.6 cents. More than half the unleaded stations in the country are now charging above two dollars a litre. For diesel, it is three quarters.
These are not projections. These are the prices on the board right now, based on live data from more than 10,000 stations across every state and territory. And the worst part? The full impact of the oil price surge still has not landed.
The Seven Day Reckoning
The numbers over the past week tell the story more clearly than any headline.
Unleaded petrol nationally has risen 20.0 cents per litre in seven days. Diesel has climbed even harder, up 25.9 cents. Premium 95 is up 16.8 cents. Premium 98 is up 17.7 cents. E10, the budget option for motorists trying to save a few cents, is up 18.7 cents.
That is not a normal week. In a typical price cycle, the swing from bottom to top across an entire cycle might be 30 to 40 cents over two to three weeks. What we have just seen is half that movement compressed into seven days, layered on top of prices that were already elevated.
For a family filling a 60 litre tank with unleaded once a week, the crisis has added $12.00 to each fill compared to last week. Over a month, that is $48 in additional fuel costs alone. For diesel drivers, it is $15.54 per fill, or $62 a month.
State by State: Nobody Has Been Spared
Every state has been hit, but the severity varies dramatically.
South Australia has recorded the sharpest unleaded increase in the country, up 31.0 cents per litre in a single week. The average has gone from 178.5 cents to 209.5 cents. That is extraordinary. SA went from being one of the cheapest states for petrol to suddenly sitting above the two dollar mark.
Queensland is close behind with a 27.8 cent jump, average now 215.3 cents. New South Wales has surged 27.4 cents to 206.1 cents. Western Australia, which was the cheapest mainland state a week ago at 168.2 cents average, has jumped 23.8 cents to 192.0 cents. Tasmania is up 23.4 cents to 201.7 cents.
Victoria shows a more modest 12.0 cent rise to 203.0 cents, though this is partly because Melbourne was already cycling higher a week ago. The ACT is up 14.0 cents to 196.2 cents. The Northern Territory has risen 9.7 cents to 234.5 cents, though remote NT communities were already paying well above $3.00 a litre before any of this started.
The diesel picture is even more confronting.
NSW diesel has jumped 32.2 cents in seven days, the largest diesel increase of any state. Tasmania is up 27.6 cents. Western Australia, up 25.4 cents. Victoria, up 24.4 cents. South Australia, up 22.0 cents. The ACT is up 19.0 cents.
The national diesel average of 211.7 cents is not just a number. Diesel is the fuel that moves freight, powers mining equipment, runs agricultural machinery, and keeps supply chains functioning. When diesel rises 26 cents in a week, the cost of everything that travels by truck rises with it. You will see that at the supermarket checkout within weeks.
The Two Dollar Line Has Been Crossed
There is a psychological threshold that matters to motorists, and we have crossed it.
As of today, 51.1 per cent of all unleaded stations in Australia are charging above 200 cents per litre. That is 4,881 out of 9,549 stations. One week ago, that figure was closer to 15 per cent.
For diesel, 75.2 per cent of stations are above two dollars. Three out of every four diesel bowsers in the country now show a number starting with two. Nearly one in five diesel stations, 18.8 per cent, has crossed 220 cents. And 107 diesel locations are above 250 cents.
Queensland is the most expensive state for unleaded right now at 215.3 cents average, followed by SA at 209.5 and NSW at 206.1. For diesel, the Northern Territory leads at 245.9 cents, followed by Queensland at 223.3 and NSW at 214.7.
The gap between cheapest and most expensive unleaded in the country remains staggering. You can fill up at Murchison in regional Victoria for 150.0 cents. Or you can pay 395.0 cents at Milingimbi in remote NT. That is a $2.45 per litre spread, or $147 difference on a 60 litre tank.
Could Prices Actually Hit Three Dollars a Litre?
It is the question on every motorist's mind, and the honest answer is more uncomfortable than most analysts are willing to say publicly: for parts of the country, three dollar fuel is not a worst case scenario. It is already here. For the rest, it depends on a single variable. Time.
Right now, 94 unleaded stations across Australia are charging above 250 cents per litre. Remote Northern Territory communities like Milingimbi at 395.0 cents, Ramingining at 379.0 cents, and Gapuwiyak at 352.0 cents are already deep into three dollar territory. These are not isolated outposts that can be dismissed as statistical outliers. They are communities where people live, work, and have no alternative to driving.
But what about Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane? Could the major capitals see $3.00 on the board?
Here is the arithmetic. The national unleaded average sits at 204.3 cents today. To reach 300 cents, that is a further 95.7 cent increase, or a 47 per cent rise from current levels. That sounds extreme until you look at what drives the numbers.
Westpac's worst case scenario, a three month Hormuz disruption, projects Brent crude at US$185 per barrel. At current exchange rates and refining margins, that translates to a wholesale petrol cost of roughly 230 to 240 cents per litre before retail margins and GST. Add a standard 16 cent retail margin and 10 per cent GST, and you land somewhere between 270 and 280 cents for unleaded in metropolitan areas. Factor in the margin expansion we have already seen, retailers pricing in anticipated costs rather than actual wholesale, and east coast capitals pushing toward 290 to 300 cents becomes mathematically plausible.
For diesel, the path to $3.00 is shorter. The national diesel average is already at 211.7 cents. Premium diesel is at 213.3 cents. Queensland diesel averages 223.3 cents. The NT averages 245.9 cents. If oil reaches US$150 per barrel, let alone US$185, metropolitan diesel could breach $2.80 and regional diesel could comfortably pass $3.00. Diesel typically carries a higher wholesale premium than unleaded during supply disruptions because of its critical role in freight, mining, and agriculture. When supply is tight, diesel gets bid up first.
Premium 98 is the fuel most likely to cross the $3 threshold soonest in metro areas. It already averages 224.6 cents nationally, with the 90th percentile at 244.9 cents. A further 55 cent rise would put the national average at $2.80, but cycle peaks and regional premiums would push individual stations past $3.00 well before the average gets there.
To put $3.00 a litre in household terms: a 60 litre fill at $3.00 costs $180. At today's average of $2.04, that same fill costs $122. That is $58 more per tank. For a family filling up once a week, $3.00 fuel adds $232 a month compared to current prices, or roughly $2,780 a year. For a two car household, double it.
The critical point is this. Three dollar fuel does not require the worst case scenario to arrive. It requires the current scenario to persist. If the strait stays closed through March and into April, if insurance markets remain frozen, if freight rates stay at ten times their normal level, then the slow grind of supply chain costs will push retail prices toward $3.00 without any further escalation in oil markets.
Australia has never seen sustained $3.00 fuel in metropolitan areas. The previous record came during the Ukraine crisis in mid 2022, when Sydney and Melbourne briefly touched 230 to 235 cents for unleaded. The Hormuz closure is a fundamentally larger disruption. The 1973 oil embargo removed roughly 4.4 million barrels per day from the market. The current crisis has effectively stranded 13 million barrels per day with no alternative route. The scale is unprecedented, and so the price outcomes may be too.
The Lag Problem: What You Are Paying Today Is Not the Real Price Yet
This is the part that should concern every motorist who thinks the worst is over.
Global oil price movements take seven to ten days to fully flow through to Australian bowsers. The prices you see on the board today are largely based on wholesale costs from late February and the very first days of the crisis. The full force of Brent crude above US$90 has not yet arrived at your local servo.
When I wrote about the crisis last week, Brent was trading around US$82 per barrel. It has since pushed through US$90 and various forecasters have it heading higher. Westpac's base case of US$100 per barrel if the strait remains disrupted has not changed. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 forecast even before the IRGC declared complete control of the strait.
What this means in practical terms is that the 20 cent per litre increase you have absorbed over the past week could be followed by another 10 to 15 cents over the coming week if oil prices hold at current levels. If Brent pushes past US$100, the national unleaded average could test 220 to 230 cents.
The lag works in reverse too. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow and oil dropped back to US$70, it would take seven to ten days for that relief to reach the bowser. There is no quick fix in either direction.
The Profiteering Question Has Not Gone Away
Last week I wrote about the gap between wholesale increases and retail increases. Wholesale up 10 cents, retail up 50. That gap has not closed.
The NRMA continues to call out retailers who are pricing in anticipated future costs rather than actual wholesale movements. The RACQ has formally referred fuel companies to the ACCC. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has written to the watchdog demanding scrutiny.
But here is the reality check. As I explained in detail last week, excessive pricing is not actually illegal in Australia. The ACCC can investigate collusion and misleading conduct, but a single retailer deciding to charge whatever the market will bear is within the law. No amount of political outrage changes the legal framework, and there is zero indication that framework is about to change.
The evidence of margin expansion is visible in the data. The spread between the 10th percentile and 90th percentile for unleaded nationally is 34.9 cents right now. That means the difference between what the cheapest 10 per cent of stations charge and what the most expensive 10 per cent charge is more than a third of a dollar per litre. Some of that spread reflects geography and transport costs. But in metropolitan areas where all stations buy from the same terminals, a spread that wide points to opportunistic pricing.
The Reserves Question Australia Still Cannot Answer
Energy Minister Chris Bowen told parliament last week that Australia has 48 days of total fuel coverage. That was meant to be reassuring. It was not.
The International Energy Agency requires member countries to hold 90 days of reserves. Australia has 48. We are dead last among the 27 net oil importing IEA nations. The average is 141 days. Even New Zealand, second worst, holds 92 days.
The Fuel Security Act 2021 committed Australia to reaching IEA compliance by 2026. That deadline has arrived. We are not compliant. We are not close.
With two refineries processing less than 30 per cent of our fuel needs, and more than 70 per cent of our fuel arriving as imports from Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and India, Australia's exposure to any sustained supply disruption is unlike any other developed economy.
The government pays up to $2.3 billion through 2030 to keep those two refineries, Ampol's Lytton in Brisbane and Viva Energy's Geelong near Melbourne, operational. Without those subsidies, both would likely close. If that happened, Australia would import 100 per cent of its fuel.
This is not a hypothetical vulnerability anymore. It is being tested right now.
What the Strait Actually Looks Like Today
Ten days into Iran's blockade, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not improved.
The IRGC maintains control. More than 700 vessels remain queued across the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. At least four ships have been attacked, one crew member killed. All 12 members of the International Group of P&I Clubs have cancelled war risk cover for the region. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, the insurance market would take months to normalise.
The US has deployed additional carrier groups but has not attempted to force passage. Mine clearance operations, the critical step for any reopening, have not begun in earnest. Iran's estimated stockpile of 5,000 to 6,000 naval mines makes this a slow, dangerous process.
The alternative routes, Saudi Arabia's East West Pipeline and the UAE's Habshan Fujairah pipeline, can reroute roughly a third of normal Hormuz flows. That leaves two thirds with no viable alternative.
Freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers remain at record levels, above US$400,000 per day. Those costs are being built into every barrel of oil and every litre of fuel in the supply chain.
What Smart Motorists Should Do Right Now
The practical advice has evolved since the crisis began. Here is what the data tells us.
Fill up now if you can find a fair price. The lag effect means prices are likely to rise further over the coming week. If your local area still has stations below 190 cents for unleaded, that is a price you are unlikely to see again for some time. Do not fill jerry cans. Do not panic buy. But if your tank is below half, top it up.
The price spread is your biggest weapon. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile for unleaded is 34.9 cents nationally. On a 60 litre tank, filling up at a station in the bottom 10 per cent versus one in the top 10 per cent saves you $20.94. Use Petrolmate's interactive fuel map to check prices before every trip to the servo.
Regional Victoria remains the cheapest corridor in the country. Murchison at 150.0 cents, Traralgon at 152.0 cents, White Hills at 152.9 cents, East Bendigo at 155.9 cents. These towns are sitting at prices that most of the country has not seen for a week. If you are within driving distance, it may be worth the trip.
Western Australia is still the cheapest state for unleaded at 192.0 cents average. Roleystone in Perth's south east has unleaded at 162.9 cents through WA FuelWatch. Perth itself ranges from 167.9 to 194.9 cents depending on the station.
Watch diesel closely if you run a business. With three quarters of diesel stations above $2.00 and the national average at 211.7 cents, freight costs are already being repriced. If you operate a fleet or depend on diesel for work, lock in supply agreements where possible and budget for sustained elevated costs.
Do not assume prices will drop quickly even if the news improves. The lag works in both directions. Even a sudden de-escalation would take seven to ten days to reach the bowser. And the insurance market disruption means shipping costs will remain elevated for months regardless of what happens at the strait.
The Economic Ripple Effect
Fuel is not just something you put in your car. It is embedded in the cost of everything.
The Australian Trucking Association has warned that sustained diesel prices above $2.10 per litre will force freight rate renegotiations across the industry. Supermarket supply chains run on diesel. Construction materials move on diesel. Agricultural products from paddock to processing plant travel on diesel.
The Reserve Bank is watching closely. The December quarter CPI data, released before the crisis, showed headline inflation at 2.4 per cent. The RBA's February minutes noted that fuel price volatility remained a risk to the inflation outlook. That was written before Hormuz. The March quarter CPI, which will capture the full impact of the crisis, could show fuel contributing 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points to headline inflation on its own.
For households already stretched by mortgage repayments and grocery costs, the fuel price spike is the latest hit to a budget with no slack. A family running two cars, one on unleaded and one on diesel, is looking at an additional $100 to $130 a month in fuel costs compared to two weeks ago. If prices climb toward $3.00, those figures double.
Where This Goes From Here
Nobody has a clear timeline for resolution. The strait remains under IRGC control. Diplomatic channels are active but no breakthrough has been announced. The US has signalled that naval escorts for allied shipping are being planned but has set no date.
The most likely path, based on historical precedent, is a gradual de-escalation over weeks rather than days. The strait will probably reopen in some form. But even after it does, the insurance market will take months to normalise, freight costs will remain elevated, and the precedent of a successful closure will permanently change how markets price Hormuz risk.
For Australian fuel prices, the critical variable is time. If this resolves within two weeks, the national unleaded average probably peaks around 215 to 220 cents and begins a slow decline. If it drags into April, 230 to 240 cents becomes realistic. If Westpac's worst case scenario plays out and disruption lasts three months, Brent hits US$185 per barrel and $2.50 per litre nationally is not alarmist. It is arithmetic. And at that point, the gap between $2.50 averages and $3.00 cycle peaks in major capitals narrows to something that should worry every household budget in the country.
The only certainty is that the choices Australia made over the past decade, closing five refineries, never building strategic reserves to international standards, importing 70 per cent of our fuel from overseas, are being stress tested in real time. And the exam results are coming due at every servo in the country.
Check Petrolmate before every fill. The difference between shopping around and filling up at the nearest station has never been worth more.
